Mets vs. Guardians, MLB odds, predictions, pick 5/21: Market too low on Cleveland?

Mets vs. Guardians Odds

Tuesday, May 21, 6:10 p.m. ET, SNY

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

New York Mets

The Mets offense looks significantly better with J.D. Martinez's 141 wRC+ in the fold. Comparing the lineup's performance from the first three weeks of the year without Martinez to now, it's night and day. Martinez is one of four everyday starters with a wRC+ above 130, joined by DJ Stewart, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who all boast a 133 wRC+. The missing link to a potentially scary offense is Francisco Lindor.

The prized shortstop has an 85 wRC+, but things could shift soon. Per Statcast, Lindor has been unlucky; his expected numbers are much better than his actual numbers, with an xBA of .266.

The Mets were hoping Adrian Houser could provide stability and innings at the back half of the rotation. It's been anything but, as Houser is among the worst pitchers in baseball, with an ugly 7.44 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in 32.2 innings . Houser will make his first start since May 2 on Tuesday. The Mets hoped a potential move to the bullpen could change his season, and he threw four innings and allowed one run in two outings in relief.

The bullpen is a real concern for the Mets. I'm not surprised their bullpen isn't elite. I am, however, surprised Edwin Díaz is the main culprit of the Mets' late-inning issues. The highly-paid closer has struggled to find his stride, posting a 9.82 ERA in his past seven games. His struggles forced Carlos Mendoza to remove him from the closer's role. Although Díaz struggled, it still felt natural to put him into the ninth and live or die with the results instead of hoping less experienced arms can handle the rigors of the ninth inning. The Mets will call on Reed Garrett and Adam Ottavino for saves until Díaz finds his groove in less stressful innings.

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians have a different offensive attack in 2024. They are on pace to shatter their 124 home run total from last year, sitting at 51 bombs already. Josh Naylor is finally breaking out, leading the team with 12 homers. José Ramírez remains the most underrated star in baseball, with 11 homers and a 119 wRC+, which is a bit low for his standards.

Even with the improved power, Cleveland remains one of the best bat-to-ball teams in MLB. Six of the Guardians' starters, excluding the injured Steven Kwan, have strikeout rates of 17.7% or below, and four are below 15%.

While Carlos Carrasco is back in Cleveland at 37 years old, he's a shell of his former All-Star self. Carrasco owns a 5.16 ERA with a 5.34 FIP and a poor 6.57 K% through nine starts.

It would be wise for the Guardians to open up a big lead early, as Emmanuel Clase is likely not in the plans since he pitched the past two days. If Clase isn't out there, Hunter Gaddis is probably the first call for the final three outs.

Mets vs. Guardians

Betting Pick & Prediction

I feel that the Guardians remain pretty undervalued in the betting market. Cleveland isn't the most talented team in the American League or the most talented team in the AL Central, but it finds ways to win games — 31 of them, in fact, the second-most in the AL.

Betting on Carrasco in 2024 feels risky. He's not the guy he used to be, and he'd probably be out of the league if the Guardians didn't have a nostalgic feel for him. He's better than Houser, though. The Mets don't want to start him and will probably have to pitch him four or five innings.

I'll gladly take the Guardians at -112, which I'll play up to -140.

Pick: Guardians ML (-112 via FanDuel)