The Blossoming Starter Developed by the Toronto Blue Jays

His struggles led to a late-season demotion to the bullpen where he would end up finishing the year. The Blue Jays publicly supported Kikuchi and stressed the importance of continuing with his pitch mix development.

That said, they were still on the hook for the remaining two years of his deal. Whether the public support was real or not, Toronto was stuck with Kikuchi. Fortunately for them, their patience paid off.

Kikuchi’s Rebound

Kikuchi rejoined the rotation in 2023 and had some moments. However, he still supported an ERA of 4.56 in late May. He was better than the year before, but not consistent enough or good enough considering his contract. But starting with his last start in May, Kikuchi’s adjustments started to pay dividends.

From May 30 through the end of the season, Kikuchi posted a 3.56 ERA in 116 1/3 innings across 22 starts. Plus, he struck out 133 batters while walking only 34. For the entire season, Kikuchi cut his walk rate in half while seeing just a slight dip in his strikeout rate. Additionally, his barrel rate and home run rate dipped to more manageable levels.

Kikuchi continued working with the Blue Jays to improve his fastball and slider. Though he increased his reliance on each pitch in 2022, opponents had great success against them. However, he fared much better, as seen by Run Value, with each pitch in 2023. Perhaps he grew more comfortable with them, or perhaps they benefitted from his increased curveball usage (his curveball usage increased 19 percent from 2022 to 2023).

Sticking with the adjustments helped Kikuchi produce by far the best season of his career. His 110 ERA+ indicates his performance was 10 percent better than league average, and beat his previous career-high of 93.

Kikuchi gradually developed into a solid, back-of-the-rotation arm that could take the Blue Jays to another level. Even better, his 2024 is showing that these improvements were no fluke.

Kikuchi Establishing Himself As A Top Starter

In the last year of his contract, Kikuchi is proving he is one of the best pitchers in the game. In six starts, the 32-year-old has thrown 33 2/3 innings with a 2.94 ERA (131 ERA+) and above-average strikeout and walk rates.

Furthermore, he is keeping the ball in the ballpark at a great rate. He still throws his fastball over 45 percent of the time but has further increased his curveball usage. Kikuchi has thrown his curveball over 27 percent of the time while decreasing his slider usage to just under 18 percent.

It’s unclear if this represents a conscious decision or a nature of circumstance in a small sample. However, it’s clear that Kikuchi has worked to become a legitimate two or three-starter for a contending team.

Evaluators across the league will keep an eye on Kikuchi for the rest of the season. Toronto has postseason aspirations but is continuing to flounder in mediocrity. Whether they get their act together or sell at the deadline, Kikuchi is establishing himself as an intriguing arm capable of helping a contending team.

Plus, if he keeps his production up, he should set himself up for a nice payday in free agency this winter. This represents a notable turnaround for a pitcher that recently looked like his days in MLB should be over.